Latest demand forecast: Vehicle sales will drop up to 40%, with second dip expected this year

The report, titled Global New Vehicle Demand Forecast 2020-2030 – Covid-19: The Long Road Ahead, forecasts a global decline of passenger and commercial vehicles of 20% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, that decline will vary by major markets dramatically, from as low as 10% declines in some countries, to as much as 40% elsewhere.

“The scale of the decline in each market will depend on a multitude of factors including the length of lockdowns, the underlying health of their economies, consumer confidence, automotive stimulus packages and purchase incentives,” said Daniel Harrison, automotive analyst at Ultima Media and author of the report. “Of course, many regions face further risks depending on how well they are able to manage continuing outbreaks of the virus and avoid any major renewal of national lockdown restrictions.”

Furthermore, the pattern of the recovery looks set to be choppy. While most markets have seen some recovery in vehicle sales volume since economies began reopening in the spring – including some countries, such as China and France, experiencing several months of growth surpassing 2019 levels – this momentum is unlikely to last in every country. Depending on the application and withdrawal of economic stimulus, as well as the unwinding of pent-up demand, vehicle sales could dip further in months later this year.

And while some countries are set to recover faster, the longer-term forecast is that some markets will take until later in the 2020s to recover annual sales volumes to the levels from before the crisis – and some not at all.